Using a fuzzy approach to assess adaptive capacity for urban water resources

摘要

Adaptive capacity has become the focus of current research on climate change. A complete set of methods to assess the adaptive capacity for Beijing water resources was established in this study. Risk factors for water resources were identified by overlapping climate change, urbanization issues, and urban water resources, and a three-dimensional framework comprising 12 indicators specific to each risk factor was built to assess the adaptive capacity of the water resource systems. These three dimensions represent the three pillars of a sustainable water resource system: water supply, water demand, and water quality. An analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the weight for each indicator. Then a fuzzy version of the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution was applied to calculate the ranking for the 11 districts in Beijing and quantify the adaptive capacity for water resources in these areas. The fuzzy approach results revealed that three indicators are key: comprehensive management capabilities for water supply, control capability for water demand, and management capabilities for water quality. Finally, adaptability proposals are proposed in accordance with the ranking results obtained.