Expect a Wider AA Market Deficit in 2018 on Production Losses; Upgrading Price Outlook

摘要

Alumina spot price stands at $370 per mton FOB Australia, up 3.6% from a six-month low reached in late February. The price of alumina increased after the environmental authorities in Brazil ordered Hydro's Alunorte refinery to cut production by 50% due to concerns over possible water contamination from one of the plant's bauxite residue deposits after heavy rain and flooding in Barcarena (please see PRODUCTION section for more details). In contrast, domestic alumina spot prices are down 6% m/m in China, trading at $364 per mton (ex-works and excluding VAT). At these prices Australia alumina is $20 per mton more expensive than Chinese domestic prices on an import-parity basis.