Can agricultural credit scoring for microf inance institutions be implemented and improved by weather data?

摘要

Purpose - In recent years, the application of credit scoring in urban microfinance institutions (MFIs) became popular, while rural MFIs, which mainly lend to agricultural clients, are hesitating to adopt credit scoring. The purpose of this paper is toexplore whether microfinance credit scoring models are suitable for agricultural clients, and if such models can be improved for agricultural clients by accounting for precipitation. Design/methodology/approach - This study merges two data sets: 24,219loan and client observations provided by the AccesBanque Madagascar and daily precipitation data made available by CelsiusPro. An in- and out-of-sample splitting separates model building from model testing. Logistic regression is employed for the scoringmodels.Findings - The credit scoring models perform equally well for agricultural and non-agricultural clients. Hence, credit scoring can be applied to the agricultural sector in microfiriance. However, the prediction accuracy does not increase with the inclusion of precipitation in the agricultural model. Therefore, simple correlation analysis between weather events and loan repayment is insufficient for forecasting future repayment behavior. Research limitations/implications - The results should be verifiedin different countries and climate contexts to enhance the robustness.Social implications - By applying scoring models to agricultural clients as well, all clients can benefit from an improved risk assessment (e.g. faster decision making).Originality/value - To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study investigating the potential of microfinance credit scoring for agricultural clients in general and for Madagascar in particular. Furthermore, this is the first study thatincorporates a weather variable into a scoring model.