Transport Fuel Supply and Demand of the Passenger Car Sector in China up to 2030: A Modeling Approach

摘要

China's consumption of transport fuels, mainly gasoline and diesel, has increased in the past decade, but at rather different rates. It is expected that the increase rates will differ further due to slow down of the economy, mainly affecting diesel demand, and fast development of the private car sector, leading to fast increase in gasoline demand. On the supply side, a certain degree of uncertainty and flexibility also exists, mainly resulting from potential changes in oil import amount and quality, development of alternative liquid fuels, retrofitting refineries and building new ones, and others. In this paper, a virtual refinery model is established to analyze the productivity of gasoline and diesel in China up to 2030. This model is at a national level where all possible physical flows, oil products, and the primary and secondary processing routes are taken into consideration. On the demand side, we present a model to analyze gasoline demand from the passenger car sector in various scenarios, covering different types of cars and concerning impacts of vehicle age distribution and penetration of alternative fuels. Results indicate that the production ratio between diesel and gasoline in China can change in the range between 1.27 and 2.92. A gap of 20 million tonnes between demand and supply of gasoline may appear around 2019 and afterward, which brings opportunities for alternative transport fuels and vehicles.