Childhood leukaemia incidence and trends in a Middle Eastern country during 1980-2014: a population-based study

摘要

Background This retrospective cohort study examines the trends in childhood leukaemia age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) (per million person-years) using cases which were diagnosed at age 0-19 years from 1980 to 2014 and recorded in the Kuwait Cancer Control Center (KCCC) registry. Methods Childhood leukaemia age-specific incidence rates overall and by sub-cohorts defined by age (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 years), sex (male, female) and nationality (Kuwaiti, non-Kuwaiti) were computed and age-standardized. Joinpoint regression models were used to evaluate trends in childhood leukaemia ASIRs. Average annual percent change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to interpret the observed trends. Results During the study period, 1077 childhood leukaemia cases of 32.3 million person-years were diagnosed. From 1980 to 2014, the average annual childhood leukaemia ASIR was 53.1 (95% CI 20.9, 85.2). Overall childhood leukaemia ASIRs significantly decreased on average by 6.8% per year (AAPC = -6.8; 95% CI -12.1, -1.1; p = 0.02) from 1980 to 1993, but a marginally significant increase in ASIRs from 1993 to 2014 was recorded (AAPC = 2.5; 95% CI -0.5, 5.5; p = 0.10). During the entire period, childhood leukaemia ASIRs trends significantly (p < 0.05) increased among 6 of 16 sub-cohorts, which was more pronounced among females and 10-14-year-old children. Conclusions Overall, ASIRs significantly increased from 1993 to 2014, which specifically seems to be driven by an increase in ASIRs among females and 10-14 -year-old children. These increasing trends underscore the potential involvement of a range of exposures. Future studies on unravelling such factors may help develop preventive measures to minimize childhood leukaemia risk in this and similar settings in the region.