Variability of onset and retreat of the rainy season in mainland China and associations with atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature

摘要

Precipitation plays an important role in both environment and human society and is a significant factor in many scientific researches such as water resources, agriculture and climate impact studies. The onset and retreat of rainy season are useful features to understand the variability of precipitation under the influence of climate change. In this study, the characteristics of onset and retreat in mainland China are investigated. The multi-scale moving t-test was applied to determine rainy season and K-means cluster analysis was used to divide China into sub-regions to better investigate rainy season features. The possible linkage of changing characteristics of onset and retreat to climate factors were also explored. Results show that: (1) the onset started from middle March in the southeast of China to early June in the northwest and rainy season ended earliest in the northwest and southeast while the central China had the latest retreat; (2) Delayed onset and advanced retreat over time were observed in many parts of China, together with overall stable or increased rainy-season precipitation, would likely lead to higher probability of flooding; (3) The onset (retreat) was associated with the increased (decreased) number of cyclones in eastern China and anticyclone near the South China Sea. Delayed onset, and advanced retreat were likely related to cold and warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the conventional El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) regions, respectively. These results suggest that predictability of rainy season can be improved through the atmospheric circulation and SST, and help water resources management and agricultural planning. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.