Predicting effect of pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV epidemics

摘要

We agree with Angela Kashuba and colleagues (June 30, p 2409) that it is essential to develop new methods for measuring adherence to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention in clinical trials. However, another important issue also needs to be addressed. Specifically, how can adherence data from clinical trials be interpreted and used to predict the success of PrEP in reducing transmission in the real world? We suggest that one approach is to use mathematical models to translate these data into population-level predictions.