Middle East urea is unlikely to feature in awards as may ensue on the back of the August 2 counters provided by MMTC pursuant to the August 1 tender, but regional producers are following developments in the tender very closely. The counters reflect netbacks in the upper $250s-260/t FOB versus a direct offer to MMTC from Adnoc about $20/t higher. The producers mainly attempt to assess forward competition from Iran in markets outside India that have been willing and able to accept Iranian urea in competition with other sources, including the Middle East. The producers argue that the likely disappearance of the majority of Iranian availability into India will support efforts by other suppliers to lift netbacks substantially.
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