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Late‐July Barrier for Subseasonal Forecast of Summer Daily Maximum Temperature Over Yangtze River Basin

机译：七月后期夏季日常最高温度的季期期预测障碍在长江盆地

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Abstract > Dynamical subseasonal forecast skill of summer daily maximum temperature ( T <sub>max</sub> ) over East China was evaluated based on a 20‐year (1995–2014) subseasonal reforecast data set from the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts. A significant late‐July barrier of subseasonal forecast skill was identified for the T <sub>max</sub> over the Yangtze River Basin, which concurs with a reduction in the prediction skill for the local 500‐hPa geopotential height. This barrier period corresponds to an abrupt transitional phase of the climatological intraseasonal oscillation when the western North Pacific subtropical high abruptly migrates northward from Yangtze River Basin to northern China. The transitional phase of the climatological intraseasonal oscillation features the largest day‐to‐day variance in the position of western North Pacific subtropical high, which may cause the drop of the subseasonal forecast skill for both the geopotential height and T <sub>max</sub> . The results indicate that the atmospheric subseasonal predictability may be strongly affected by the phases of the local climatological intraseasonal variation. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >夏季每日最高温度的动态暂定预测技能（ t </ i> <在华东地区的Sub> Max </ Sub>基于来自欧洲中距离预测中心的20年（1995-2014）暂停的重新赘述数据进行评估。在长江流域的 T </ i> <sum> Max </ sub>上鉴定了大幅度预测技能的重要预测技能的屏障，这使得局部500-的预测技巧减少HPA地球势高度。当西北太平洋亚热带高度从长江盆地到北方北方北方突然迁移时，这种屏障周期对应于气候初始振荡的突然转型阶段。气候渗透振荡的过渡阶段具有西北太平洋亚热带高位的最大日常方差，这可能导致地球势高度和 T </ i的局部预测技能下降> <sub> max </ sub>。结果表明，局部气候初始变异的阶段可能会受到局部影响的大气性沉积的可预测性。 </ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第22期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共6页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Yang Jing&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Yang Jing;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Zhu Tao&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Zhu Tao;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Gao Miaoni&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Gao Miaoni;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Lin Hai&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Lin Hai;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wang Bin&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wang Bin;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Bao Qing&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Bao Qing;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology/Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing China;</p> <p>State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology/Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Education Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing China;</p> <p>School of Systems ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing China;</p> <p>Meteorological Research DivisionEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval Quebec Canada;</p> <p>Department of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research CenterUniversity of Hawai‘i at MānoaHonolulu HI USA;</p> <p>State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) IAP/CASBeijing China;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=daily maximum temperature&option=203" rel="nofollow">daily maximum temperature;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=subseasonal prediction&option=203" rel="nofollow">subseasonal prediction;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=forecast barrier&option=203" rel="nofollow">forecast barrier;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：每日最高温度;沉积预测;预测障碍; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" 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