Regional Climate Sensitivity‐ and Historical‐Based Projections to 2100

Hébert Rapha?l; Lovejoy Shaun

摘要

Abstract >Reliable climate projections at the regional scale are needed in order to evaluate climate change impacts and inform policy. We develop an alternative method for projections based on the transient climate sensitivity (TCS), which relies on a linear relationship between the forced temperature response and the strongly increasing anthropogenic forcing. The TCS is evaluated at the regional scale (5° by 5°), and projections are made accordingly to 2100 using the high and low Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios. We find that there are large spatial discrepancies between the regional TCS from 5 historical data sets and 32 global climate model (GCM) historical runs and furthermore that the global mean GCM TCS is about 15% too high. Given that the GCM Representative Concentration Pathway scenario runs are mostly linear with respect to their (inadequate) TCS, we conclude that historical methods of regional projection are better suited given that they are directly calibrated on the real world (historical) climate. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”XML：ID =“Grl57104-Abs-abs-abs-0001”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >区域规模的可靠气候预测需要评估气候变化的影响和通知政策。我们基于瞬态气候敏感度（TCS）开发一种替代方法，该方法依赖于强制温度响应与强烈的人体强制之间的线性关系。在区域尺度（5°乘5°）评估TCS，并且使用高低代表浓度途径发射场景，相应地对2100进行投影。我们发现，从5个历史数据集和32个全球气候模型（GCM）的历史历史运行，以及32个全球性气候模型（GCM）之间存在巨大的空间差异，并且全球平均GCM TCS约为15％。鉴于GCM代表浓度路径场景主要是线性的（不足）TCS，我们得出结论，区域预测的历史方法更适合，因为它们直接校准了现实世界（历史）气候。</ p > </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第9期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共7页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Hébert Rapha?l&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Hébert Rapha?l;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Lovejoy Shaun&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Lovejoy Shaun;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of PhysicsMcGill UniversityMontreal Quebec Canada;</p> <p>Department of PhysicsMcGill UniversityMontreal Quebec Canada;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate projections&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate projections;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=scaling&option=203" rel="nofollow">scaling;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate response function&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate response function;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：气候;气候预测;缩放;气候响应功能; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul id="referencedaohang"> <li dataid="referenceul">参考文献</li> <li dataid="citationul">引证文献</li> <li dataid="commonreferenceul">共引文献</li> <li dataid="commoncitationul">同被引文献</li> <li dataid="tworeferenceul">二级参考文献</li> <li dataid="twocitationul">二级引证文献</li> </ul> </div> <div class="reference_details" id="referenceList"> <ul id="referenceul"></ul> <ul id="citationul"></ul> <ul id="commonreferenceul"></ul> <ul id="commoncitationul"></ul> <ul id="tworeferenceul"></ul> <ul id="twocitationul"></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704019850661.html">Regional Climate Sensitivity‐ and Historical‐Based Projections to 2100</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Hébert Rapha?l&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Hébert Rapha?l,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Lovejoy Shaun&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" 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