Prices breach $80/bl

摘要

Oil prices have reached $80/bl for the first time since November 2014 following the renewal of US sanctions against Iran. The threat of large cuts in Iranian exports comes as the oil market tightens in response to strong demand growth and high compliance with the Opec production cuts agreement. Argus expects supply and demand to be in balance overall this year, with large increases in non-Opec supply absorbed by higher demand. A substantial stockdraw is expected in the third quarter, when a seasonal spike in global consumption will outstrip supply, and enforced cuts to Iranian oil sales could widen the supply deficit further over the summer. The impact on crude exports of US unilateral action is uncertain. Europe aims to keep the nuclear deal alive, while other Opec members may step in to fill any supply gap. Saudi Arabia responded to the renewal of US sanctions against Iran by saying it “would work with major producers within and outside Opec as well as major consumers to mitigate the impact of any potential supply shortages”.