Oil prices have risen close to $75/bl,driven by Opec production cuts and the potential for further,involuntary,output disruptions.Opec production declines,Venezuela’s stuttering oil sector and easing non-Opec output growth helped leave demand 1.3mn b/d higher than supply in the first quarter,Argus Consulting’s supply-demand balance indicates.Non-Opec production fell in January-March from the previous quarter,against a backdrop of production cuts in Russia as part of the Opec/non-Opec agreement as well as mandatory output restraint in Canada.A further global stockdraw of around 800,000 b/d is expected in the second quarter if Opec holds its production at where it is presently.The group’s production fell again last month to less than 30.2mn b/d,a monthly drop of around 400,000 b/d.The 11 members with targets under this year’s output deal have stripped 1.3mn b/d from supply compared with their October baseline,a compliance rate of nearly 160pc and 500,000 b/d more than their communal pledge.Target-free Venezuela’s output has fallen by around 400,000 b/d since October,while the US decision not to renew sanctions waivers for buyers of Iranian crude threatens to further curb that country’s production.And Libya appears as far away from normality and stability as ever.
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