review of 2012/13

摘要

The 2012/13 season began with global cotton stocks estimated at a record 15.3 million tons, up 58% from 2011/12. The season-average Cotlook A Index dropped 12% to 88 cents per pound in 2012/13, continuing a fall from a record of S1.64 per pound in 2010/11 and $1.00 per pound in 2011/12. The decline in price drove cotton farmers to switch to more profitable alternative crops. Consequently, cotton plantings decreased 6% to 34 million hectares, and production fell 5% to 26.4 million tons in 2012/13, while the average yield remained stable at 776 kg/ha. On the other hand, demand for cotton by spinners rebounded after two consecutive seasons of decline. World cotton consumption was estimated up by 6% to 23.5 million tons, nonetheless the second smallestin nine years. Despite the decrease in production and increase in consumption, global cotton stocks jumped by 19% to 18.2 million tons and surpassed the 2011/12 record. The global stocks-to-use ratio rose from 69% in 2011/12 to 78%, the highest level since World War II. World cotton trade rose 1% to 9.7 million tons as Chinese imports fell 21% from 5.3 million tons in 2011/12 to 4.2 million tons in 2012/13, while shipments to the rest of the world increased 23% to 5.5 million tons.