International cotton prices have shown a downward trend over the last 10 years. Indeed, season average prices since 1998/99 have consistently been below the 30-year average price of 70 cents per pound, a benchmark often seen as representing equilibrium prices, and the Secretarial has reported that it is likely that average prices for the first decade of the 21st century would be 10 to 15 cents lower. Just as important, the downward trend of prices seems to be complemented by higher price variabilityover the last four crop years, as international cotton prices fluctuated between 35 and 80 cents per pound since August 2000.
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