RECORD PRODUCTION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

摘要

Cotton area in the Southern Hemisphere is generally more price-responsive than in the Northern Hemisphere. Average cotton prices in September 2004 were 11% lower on the year, while soybeans prices were about unchanged. However, prices were still above55 cents per pound when planting decisions were made, and production costs of the more efficient producers in several countries of the Southern Hemisphere, such as Brazil and Argentina, are below 55 cents per pound. As a result, cotton area in the Southern Hemisphere rose 9% to 3.5 million hectares in 2004/05, up 300,000 hectares. The average yield in the Southern Hemisphere is expected to reaching an all-time high of 742 kilograms per hectare in 2004/05, up 20 kilograms per hectare from last season, and 30 kilograms above the average yield in the Northern Hemisphere. As a result, overall production in the Southern Hemisphere is climbing to an estimated record of 2.6 million tons, up almost 300,000 tons (12%). Production in the Northern Hemisphere rose 23% in 2004/05. Therefore, the Southern Hemisphere accounts for an estimated 10% of world production this season, down one percentage point from 2003/04.