SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE PRODUCTION UP 25% IN 2003/04

摘要

Plantings in the Southern Hemisphere are generally more priceresponsive than in the Northern Hemisphere. World prices were above 60 cents per pound at the time of planting in October 2000. As a result, cotton area in the Southern Hemisphere jumped by20% and production soared to a record of about 2.4 million tons in 2000/01. Conversely, as prices plummeted below 40 cents per pound in October 2001, plantings declined by an estimated 19%, and production fell to 1,9 million tons in 2001/02. However, although cotton prices were about 35% higher in October 2002 than one year earlier, cotton area dropped 14% in 2002/03 because of drought and attractive prices for soybeans. Production dropped to 16 million tons in 2002/03, a 9-year low. In October 2003, International prices climbed above 70 cents per pound for the first time since July 1998. At that time, the ratio between cotton and soybean international prices was more attractive than in October 2002. As a result, Southern Hemisphere plantings rose by an estimated 650,000 hectares (28%) to 3 million hectares. In comparison, cotton area in the Northern Hemisphere increased 7% (2 million hectares) in 2003/04. The increase in cotton area in the Southern Hemisphere would have been even larger if the 2002 drought after-effects had not affected Australia.