Ferrochrome

摘要

By the end of 2003, we estimate that the world market for high carbon ferrochrome was in a deficit of around 140,000 tonnes, which equates to around eight weeks of consumption on a global basis. In 2004 we anticipate that this trend will persist and by the end of the year we expect to see a deficit of at least this magnitude once again. As was the case in 2003, we expect that demand side fundamentals will continue to give strength to the ferrochrome market in 2004, in line with our strong forecast for stainless melted production, which we estimate will rise by 7.8 percent year-on-year on a global basis. Looking back at 2003, despite the achievement of an overall market deficit, it is clear that the situation in the western world varied considerably from the overall global picture. After updating our market balance with the latest trade and production figures, we estimate that the western world market actually achieved a surplus of around 50,000 tonnes of ferrochrome by the end of 2003, which is considerably larger than we had first anticipated. While we know that production growth in the western world accelerated rapidly in 2003, rising by 17 percent compared with 2002 levels, this factor alone does not account for the surplus achieved in this region. Indeed, we expect that the surplus occurred predominantly as a result of increased export volumes from the CIS, and more specifically from Kazakhstan. The region's largest producer, Kazchrome, estimates that in 2003 it produced approximately 720,000 tonnes of high carbon ferrochrome and exported approximately 700,000 tonnes of this total, consequently contributing to a surplus of material in the western world. For 2004 Kazchrome is equally ambitious and has stated that it will produce around 780,000 tonnes of high carbon ferrochrome in conjunction with its expansion plans to raise total capacity to 1m tpy by 2005. As a result, we expect that the level of exports will continue to rise from this region in line with its expanding output.