Nickel

摘要

As 2003 draws to a close, LME nickel prices are touching 14-year highs. Triggered by fund buying across the whole LME complex, both the official LME cash nickel price and the three-month price rallied to 12,760 dollars/tonne on 5~(th) December. Much of the increase in prices this year has been based on expectations rather than reality. Despite solid world growth in consumption and a lengthy strike at Inco's Sudbury operations, the physical market has not seen a major shortage of nickel, thanks to the release of 60,000 tonnes of stock by Norilsk. Looking forward, however, the chances of the market avoiding a deficit in 2004 are very slim indeed. In the absence of Norilsk's stockpile release, the world market for nickel would have seen a deficit of over 40,000 tonnes in 2003. Next year, with an improvement in economic activity expected in North America, Europe and Japan, and another double-digit increase in demand forecast for China, nickel consumption is set to rise strongly. In addition, there are no major new nickel projects scheduled to start-up next year and Bulong, which has been producing 8,000-9,000tpy of material, has recently closed down. As a result, the nickel market could easily see a world deficit of 40,000 tonnes in 2004, and this without a strike at Falconbridge's Sudbury operations as a result of labour contract negotiations.