Norilsk: Anything left to sell?

摘要

Given the weak state of demand during the summer lull you would expect that the release of 24,000 tonnes of nickel onto the world market would see premiums ease. Instead, premiums continue to generally rise across the world, which begs the question of does Norilsk have any of its loan collateral stockpile left to sell or has it shifted the lot? Since Norilsk announced that it would be freeing up the last 24,000 tonnes of its Rotterdam stockpile in June, deliveries of full plate cathode into LML warehouses has amounted to 7,300 tonnes up to 8 August, with 4,300 tonnes having been delivered between 20 and 27 June alone. Assuming that all of this metal is from the Norilsk stockpile, what has happened to the balance of 16,700 tonnes? We believe that some of the material has gone to consumers, although most likely instead of supply normally met through current production as a result of the seasonal flooding at the port of Dudinka. With Dudinka back, we expect that some of the stockpiled material will be replenished from current production, leaving little in the way of a net increase in available supply to the market.