Long March

摘要

March may not be the cruelest month, but it's trying. After brief flirtation with an easier phase, the concentrates market has turned against consumers. Spot refining charges for blister have hit record lows, and scrap supply has been hit by lower prices, a weaker dollar and slower fabricating activity. The spot market has tightened again. Or perhaps the tightness never really went away, The beginning of the year was dominated by big sales (Somincor, Codelco and Kennecott), with terms quoted at mid-dollar 20s/2s or a little higher for mid-year and beyond. Since then there has been a clutch of deals more representative of nearby business. The return of China has pushed mine/merchant terms back to a shade under dollar20/2, with many traders quietly shelving hopes for cheaper concentrates as the year progresses.