N.I.C.E. turning nasty

摘要

2008 has been a remarkable year for the copper market. 3-month copper prices were at or above 8,000 dollars/t from February to July and hit an all-time nominal high of 8,930 dollars/t on 2~(nd) July. Unfortunately, from these heights the adage "The bigger they come the harder they fall" has turned out to be the best description of the remainder of the year, with copper prices slipping below 7,000 dollars/t in Q3 before plummeting in Q4. Over the past month, 3-month prices on the LME have fallen towards 2,900 dollars t in the morning on 18~(th) December, having traded in a 2,900-3,370 dollars/t range since the last monitor. Looking ahead, with many copper semis companies reporting 20-30 percent declines in order volumes for their products, 2009 looks set to be one of the most difficult years since the early 1980s recession, if not all the way back to the 1930s. The N.I.C.E. times (Non-Inflationary, Continuous Expansion) enjoyed over the past decade have definitely ended, with nasty implications for the copper market.