Fibre Optic Cable--Weak markets seen as temporary, but timing of recovery will vary

摘要

If the year-on-year trend of Q1 were extended for all of 2009, the "non-China market" for cable would be 86 million fibre-km, down 12 percent from 98 million km in 2008. There is cautious optimism that orders will pick up before year-end, but opinions vary as to where and when. Carriers' Q1 09 financials show the following trends: 1) wireline voice subscribers and revenues continue to decrease, but broadband and wireless data revenues are growing; 2) capex and other cost reductions are helping to stabilize earnings; 3) revenues from Internet and pay-TV are helping to offset the downturn in revenues from wireline business services and voice. The outlook for stronger cable orders depends on when telecom revenues, capex, and credit go back up. Even during the recession, operators have continued to plan fibre projects. The table shows a selection of recent FTTx announcements. (European projects are listed on page 9.)