Since our last monitor, 3-Months LME prices have edged higher, trading between a low of 2,207 dollars/tonne and a high of 2,356 dollars/tonne. Aluminium benefited from strong oil prices, which helped LME 3-Months aluminium prices move closer to their highs reached in January. Gains earlier in the month were supported by higher open interest, suggesting that new longs entered the market, but a subsequent slide in prices was accompanied by a drop in open interest, pointing to some profit taking, before a rally over the last week pushed prices higher. During this late rally, open interest remained stable, indicating that old longs were selling to new longs, which is regarded as a bullish signal. Indeed, investor sentiment has remained strong and positive economic data has underpinned prices, especially recent US non-farm payrolls and ISM non-manufacturing data. These have also benefited the US dollar, which strengthened against both the euro and the Japanese yen. The cash to 15-Months contango averaged 128 dollars/tonne in March, slightly wider than February's 126 dollars/tonne average. Meanwhile in China, prices have slipped since our last monitor. Indeed, since the Lunar New Year in mid-February, SHFE prices have traded between Rmb16,500/tonne and Rmb17,000/tonne, unable to recover to the Rmb18,000/tonne levels seen in January of this year.
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