Long-term prediction of the dynamics of age-class and species composition of forests

摘要

This paper considers an approach to the long-term prediction of the age-class and species composition of forests based on mathematical modeling of the biological processes of stand growth and development, forest destruction under adverse environmental factors, natural reforestation on temporarily unstocked forest lands, and the use and reproduction of forest resources. A scheme for modeling the dynamics of forest ecosystems is given, and a state-and-transition model for the natural and anthropogenic dynamics of the age-class and species composition of forests is described. Input data for the basic version of the model are presented, including the initial conditions, stand growth curves, and the parameters of the processes affecting forest condition. Estimates of the natural reforestation and natural succession are proposed based on data of forest management and national forest inventories.