Empirical assessment of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator quality in a parametric counting process model for recurrent events

摘要

A particular parametric model, based on the counting process theory, and aimed at the analysis of recurrent events is explored. The model is built in the context of reliability of repairable systems and is used to analyze failures of water distribution pipes. The proposed model accounts for aging of systems, for harmful effects of events on the state of systems, and for covariates, both fixed and varying in time. The parameters assessing the aging and the effects of fixed covariates are largely explored in the literature on recurrent events modeling and are considered as typical parameters, whereas the parameters assessing the harmful effects of events on the state of systems and the effects of time-dependent covariates are considered to be original and model-specific. The general usability of the model is empirically assessed in terms of normality and unbiasedness of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of model parameters. The results of a Monte Carlo study for the MLE are presented. The asymptotic behavior of the MLE is explored according to two asymptotic directions: the number of individuals under observation and the duration of the observation. Other possible scales, combining these two directions and governing the asymptotic behavior of the MLE, are also explored. The empirically stated asymptotic properties of the MLE are partially consistent with the theoretical results presented in the literature for typical model parameters. The model-specific parameters present specific trends in asymptotic behavior. The empirical results suggest that the number of observed events can uniquely govern the asymptotic behavior of typical parameters. Model-specific parameters may additionally depend on other criteria.