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Robust model selection using fast and robust bootstrap

机译:使用快速且强大的引导程序进行可靠的模型选择

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Robust model selection procedures control the undue influence that outliers can have on the selection criteria by using both robust point estimators and a bounded loss function when measuring either the goodness-of-fit or the expected prediction error of each model. Furthermore, to avoid favoring over-fitting models, these two measures can be combined with a penalty term for the size of the model. The expected prediction error conditional on the observed data may be estimated using the bootstrap. However, bootstrapping robust estimators becomes extremely time consuming on moderate to high dimensional data sets. It is shown that the expected prediction error can be estimated using a very fast and robust bootstrap method, and that this approach yields a consistent model selection method that is computationally feasible even for a relatively large number of covariates. Moreover, as opposed to other bootstrap methods, this proposal avoids the numerical problems associated with the small bootstrap samples required to obtain consistent model selection criteria. The finite-sample performance of the fast and robust bootstrap model selection method is investigated through a simulation study while its feasibility and good performance on moderately large regression models are illustrated on several real data examples.
机译:健壮的模型选择程序通过在测量每个模型的拟合优度或预期预测误差时同时使用稳健点估计器和有界损失函数,来控制离群值对选择标准的不当影响。此外,为了避免偏爱过度拟合的模型,可以将这两种方法与模型大小的惩罚项结合使用。可以使用引导程序估计以观测数据为条件的预期预测误差。但是,自举的鲁棒估计量在中到高维数据集上变得非常耗时。结果表明,可以使用非常快速且鲁棒的自举方法来估计预期的预测误差,并且该方法会产生一致的模型选择方法,即使对于相对大量的协变量,该模型选择方法在计算上也是可行的。而且,与其他自举方法相反,该建议避免了与获得一致的模型选择标准所需的小自举样本相关的数值问题。通过仿真研究,研究了快速,鲁棒的自举模型选择方法的有限样本性能,同时在一些实际数据示例中说明了其在中大型回归模型上的可行性和良好性能。

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