Technical note: Calibration of EVA methods for peak-over-threshold wind data using Bootstrapping

摘要

This paper uses Bootstrapping methods to calibrate the accuracy of estimating the design once in 50 year wind speed, V_(50), from peak-over-threshold wind speed observations. It confirms previous studies showing that the generalised Pareto distribution is not a satisfactory model for extreme wind speeds. It demonstrates that when n-day maxima are used the value of the total population of independent events is known. This allows the peak-over-threshold observations to be represented by a left-censored probability distribution, eliminating mean bias and greatly reducing the standard error in the V_(50) estimates.