Assessing the importance of self-regulating mechanisms in diamondback moth population dynamics: application of discrete mathematical models.

摘要

The applicability of discrete mathematical models for the description of diamondback moth (DBM) (Plutella xylostella L.) population dynamics was investigated. The parameter values for several well-known discrete time models (Skellam, Moran-Ricker, Hassell, Maynard Smith-Slatkin, and discrete logistic models) were estimated for an experimental time series from a highland cabbage-growing area in eastern Kenya. For all sets of parameters, boundaries of confidence domains were determined. Maximum calculated birth rates varied between 1.086 and 1.359 when empirical values were used for parameter estimation. After fitting of the models to the empirical trajectory, all birth rate values resulted considerably higher (1.742-3.526). The carrying capacity was determined between 13.0 and 39.9DBM/plant, after fitting of the models these values declined to 6.48-9.3, all values well within the range encountered empirically. The application of the Durbin-Watson criteria for comparison of theoretical and experimental population trajectories produced negative correlations with all models. A test of residual value groupings for randomness showed that their distribution is non-stochastic. In consequence, we conclude that DBM dynamics cannot be explained as a result of intra-population self-regulative mechanisms only (=by any of the models tested) and that more comprehensive models are required for the explanation of DBM population dynamics.