Analysis of the effect of immunization in rabies time series

摘要

The authors analysed time series of rabies cases diagnosed in Hungary between 1967 and 2001. In Transdanubia (West Hungary), an oral immunization program started in 1992 and in East Hungary in 2001. Both long term and seasonal trends were identified in the time series of rabies cases. In order to characterize the underlying processes governing the behaviour of the epidemic, the fluctuations around the trend were analysed before and after immunization separately. It turned out that the tail of the complementary cumulative distribution functions differ. The tail of the distribution follows an inverse power law (IPL) function and describes the distribution of extreme events. The significant difference in the IPL exponents before and after immunization can be explained by the theory of Highly Optimized Tolerance (HOT). (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.