Estimation of Crop Production at Smaller Geographical Level in India

摘要

Crop production statistics for smaller geographical (or small area) levels like Community Development Block level (Block) or Gram Panchayat (GP) level are in great demand to make area-specific plans for agricultural development programmes in India. The crop production estimates in the country are obtained through scientifically designed Crop Cutting Experiments (CCEs) conducted under the General Crop Estimation Survey. Large number of CCEs are conducted annually for producing reliable estimates of crop production of different crops at the district level. If reasonably precise estimates are required for further smaller geographical levels such as Block or GP level, the number of CCEs is expected to increase enormously. However, conducting requisite number of area specific CCEs is neither operationally feasible nor it is economically viable. In this paper we explore an alternative approach for estimation of crop production at Block level. The proposed approach uses available District level data fromCCEs and the auxiliary information from various administrative sources to obtain a reliable estimate of crop production at Block level. An empirical study with wheat production data of Barabanki district of the State of Uttar Pradesh, India shows that approach works well and provides reliable estimates at Block level.