Stochastic modeling of particle movement with application to marine biology and oceanography

摘要

We consider some stochastic models that have been proposed for the trajectories of moving objects, including Brownian motion. This leads to the development of a general approach for dealing with paths including the use of functional stochastic differential equations. We then present an empirical example based on the surface drifting movements of a small satellite-linked radio transmitter tag after it detached from a whale shark in the western Indian Ocean. The daily estimates of the tag's locations were determined from transmissions received at irregular times by polar-orbiting satellites of the Argos Data Collection and Location Service system.An aspect of the empirical analysis is a study of how well the sea surface currents that are derived from remote sensing and sea surface models compare to the movements of the drifting tag. A second is to develop a predictive model using the past tag locations, the currents and the winds.