Wood as a major feedstock for biofuel production in the United States: impacts on forests and international trade. (Special Issue: Sustainable wood bioenergy in the United States.)

摘要

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 mandates large increases in ethanol for transport, from about 6 billion gallons current annual production to 36 billion gallons by 2022. The act mandates that large portions of ethanol be cellulosic ethanol. Although there are a number of potential feedstocks for cellulosic ethanol, it is highly likely that much of the feedstock will come from the timber base as raw wood, especially in the early years before grass production, and alternative feedstock, has become well-developed and infrastructure networks created. This article uses a well-known timber projections model to estimate the impact of the potential near doubling of demand for industrial type resulting from the mandates and finds that real prices could raise 15-20%. It also projects a large increase in the importation of processed wood products as domestic wood products production is crowded out by high raw wood prices.