Time series of juvenile and adult green abalone (Haliotis fulgens) in Bahia Tortugas, Mexico: its potential application as a forecast of future stock abundance.

摘要

A time series abundance analysis of adult and juvenile Haliotis fulgens living in the central region of Baja California Sur, Mexico, was performed and its potential application to fishery management as a predictor of future catches was assessed. The juvenile time series consisted of 13 y (1996 to 2008) of semiannual sampling of abalone juveniles from 2 sites in Bahia Tortugas, Baja California Sur, whereas the adult time series encompassed 15 y (1996 to 2010) at the same fishing area. The time series were based on separate density and biomass surveys of the abalone population conducted annually by the Instituto Nacional de la Pesca for setting catch quotas in all abalone fishing areas. Various lagged linear regressions and quadratic regressions were tested to explore the correlations between 1-y-old recruits and >=3-, 4-, and 5-y-old adults; the reverse order was also evaluated (adults of various ages and 1-y-old recruits). The only significant quadratic regression captured the 3-y delay between <=1-y-old juveniles and 4-y-old adults (r=0.702, P=0.014). Smoothed series for both adults and recruits revealed that the abundance of recruits <=1 y old was reflected 3 y later in the abundance of 4-y-old adults. The importance of a predictive model such as this one lies primarily in its good approximation of future catches, enabling the anticipation of population increases or recruitment failures that may impact the fishery.