Data-driven exploration of 'spatial pattern-time process-driving forces' associations of SARS epidemic in Beijing, China.

摘要

BACKGROUND: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) was first reported in November 2002 in China, and spreads to about 30 countries over the next few months. While the characteristics of epidemic transmission are individually assessed, there are also important implicit associations between them. METHODS: A novel methodological framework was developed to overcome barriers among separate epidemic statistics and identify distinctive SARS features. Individual statistics were pair-wise linked in terms of their common features, and an integrative epidemic network was formulated. RESULTS: The study of associations between important SARS characteristics considerably enhanced the mainstream epidemic analysis and improved the understanding of the relationships between the observed epidemic determinants. The response of SARS transmission to various epidemic control factors was simulated, target areas were detected, critical time and relevant factors were determined. CONCLUSION: It was shown that by properly accounting for links between different SARS statistics, a data-based analysis can efficiently reveal systematic associations between epidemic determinants. The analysis can predict the temporal trend of the epidemic given its spatial pattern, to estimate spatial exposure given temporal evolution, and to infer the driving forces of SARS transmission given the spatial exposure distribution.