The role of motivation, responsibility, and integrative complexity in crisis escalation: Comparative studies of war and peace crises

摘要

Drawing on D. G. Winter's (1993) comparison of 1914 and the Cuban Missile Crisis, the author identified 8 paired crises (I escalating to war, I peacefully resolved). Documents (diplomatic messages, speeches, official media commentary) from each crisis were scored for power, affiliation, and achievement motivation; text measures of responsibility and activity inhibition; and integrative complexity. Aggregated effect-size results show that war crises had significantly higher levels of power motivation and responsibility, whereas peace crises showed trends toward higher integrative complexity and achievement motivation. Follow-up analyses suggested that these results are robust with respect to both sides in a crisis, type of material scored, and historical time. The power motive results extend previous findings, but the responsibility results suggest that responsibility plays a paradoxical role in war. Future research directions are sketched, and the role of psychological content analysis in monitoring the danger of war is discussed.