A quantification prediction model of coalbed methane content and its application in Pannan coalfield, Southwest China

摘要

This study analyzed the influential factors of CMC including quantitative and qualitative indexes. In order to predict CMC (coalbed methane content) accurately in advance during exploration stage with limited data in Pannan coalfield, Southwest China, the prediction models of CMC (coalbed methane content) were established using quantification theory on the foundation of limited data obtained from the exploratory bores. The application result based on prospecting bores in MaYi coalmine confirms that the widely applied one-dimension linear regression prediction method of CMC in engineering in China can't fully reflect the storage law of CMC. It was found that the cover depth of coal seam may not be the only cardinal affecting element, other quantitative indexes and factors referring to qualitative indexes are also have close relation to CMC. The prediction model of CMC with and without considering qualitative indexes were established on the foundation of quantification theory, and the results of quantification prediction model considering both quantitative and qualitative factors of CMC are in good agreement with the initial records of CMC. This means that more indexes including quantitative ones and qualitative facets must be carefully considered in the prediction of CMC. F-test value and VIF suggest that quantification prediction model considering both quantitative and qualitative indexes that influence CMC is more comprehensive and accurate than traditional methods. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.