HUBBERT’S THEORY AND THE ULTIMATE COAL PRODUCTION IN TEMRS OF THE KUZNETSK COAL BASIN

摘要

The paper addresses Hubbert’s theory and its applicability to coal production dynamics in terms of the Kuznetsk Coal Basin (Kuzbass). The authors describe and validate the evaluation procedure for ultimate coal production using the lag modeling and the law of ultimate mineral mining efficiency decline, and present preliminary estimates of the ultimate coal production in Kuzbass based on the maximum NPV criterion in the dynamical unconstrained optimization problem.