A Study on Forecasting Visit Demands of Korea National Park Using Seasonal ARIMA Model

摘要

This study was conducted to find out appropriate model and forecast visit demand of korea national parks using seasonal ARIMA model. Data of monthly visitors uses of 18 korea national parks from January, 2003 to December, 2010 was used to analyze. Theresult showed that ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)~(12) model was selected as a appropriate model to forecast visit demand of korea national parks and the result of post evaluation used by index of mean absolute percentage error was accurate. Therefore, the resultof this study will enhance reliability and validity of forecasting technique and contribute to management strategy of korea national park.