Generalised storage-yield-reliability modelling: Independent validation of the Vogel-Stedinger (V-S) model using a Monte Carlo simulation approach

摘要

The generalised storage-yield-reliability model by Vogel and Stedinger (V-S) is widely used in the literature but there has never been a complete validation of the model with measured river runoff data. This study investigated the problem using three different river runoff data records within a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The V-S model is predicated on the assumption that the probability distribution of reservoir capacity can be described by the 3-parameter log-normal density function. The results showed that the V-S model over-predicted reservoir capacity quantiles for most yield (or demand) ratios but especially so for very high (>0.8) yield ratios. Further investigations revealed that the poor performance of the V-S model was caused by the huge errors associated with its expression for two of the three parameters of the 3-parameter log-normal distribution, i.e. the variance and the lower limit, although the mean of the distribution was relatively well predicted.