Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin

摘要

The Danjiangkou reservoir lies in the upper Hanjiang basin and is the source of water for the middle route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) in China. Any significant change in the magnitude or timing of runoff from the Danjiangkou reservoir induced by changes in climatic variables would have significant implications for the economic prosperity of the area in the Hanjiang basin as well as for the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. In this paper the following issues are investigated: (1) Temporal trends of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature from 1951 to 2003 in the Hanjiang basin are analyzed using the Mann-Kendall and the linear regression methods; spatial distributions of precipitation and temperature are interpolated by the inverse distance weighted interpolation method. (2) Temporal trends of runoff, precipitation and temperature from 1951 to 2003 in the Danjiangkou reservoir, an upper stream basin of the Hanjiang River, are further tested. (3) To assess the impact of climate change on water resources and predict the future runoff change in the Danjiangkou reservoir basin, a two-parameter water balance model is used to simulate the hydrological response for the climate change predicted by GCMs for the region for the period of 2021-2050. The results indicate that (1) at the alpha= 0.05 significance level precipitation in the Hanjiang basin has no trend, but the temperature in the same region has significant upward trends in most parts of the Hanjiang basin. (2) The mean annual, spring, and winter run-offs in the Danjiangkou reservoir basin have decreasing trends. (3) The results simulated for the period 2021-2050 show that runoff of the Danjiangkou reservoir would increase in all the seasons, mainly in response to the predicted precipitation increase in the region. Sensitivity analysis shows that a 1 degrees C and 2 degrees C increase in temperature would reduce the mean annual runoff to about 3.5% and 7%, respectively. A decrease/ increase of the mean monthly precipitation of 20% and 10% would decrease/ increase the mean annual runoff to about 30% and 15%, respectively. The results of this study provide a scientific reference not only for assessing the impact of the climate change on water resources and the flood prevention in the Hanjiang basin, but also for dimensioning the middle route of the SNWDP in China. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.