Use of Fuzzy rainfall-runoff predictions for claypan watersheds with conservation buffers in Northeast Missouri

摘要

Fuzzy rainfall-runoff models are often used to forecast flood or water supply in large catchments and applications at small/field scale agricultural watersheds are limited. The study objectives were to develop, calibrate, and validate a fuzzy rainfall-runoff model using long-term data of three adjacent field scale row crop watersheds (1.65-4.44 ha) with intermittent discharge in the claypan soils of Northeast Missouri. The watersheds were monitored for a six-year calibration period starting 1991 (pre-buffer period). Thereafter, two of them were treated with upland contour grass and agroforestry (tree + grass) buffers (4.5 m wide, 36.5 m apart) to study water quality benefits. The fuzzy system was based on Mamdani method using MATLAB 7.10.0. The model predicted event-based runoff with model performance coefficients of r~2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSC) values greater than 0.65 for calibration and validation. The pre-buffer fuzzy system predicted event-based runoff for 30-50 times larger corn/soybean watersheds with r~2 values of 0.82 and 0.68 and NSC values of 0.77 and 0.53, respectively. The runoff predicted by the fuzzy system closely agreed with values predicted by physically-based Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender model (APEX) for the pre-buffer watersheds. The fuzzy rainfall-runoff model has the potential for runoff predictions at field-scale watersheds with minimum input. It also could up-scale the predictions for large-scale watersheds to evaluate the benefits of conservation practices.