A fuzzy rule based metamodel for monthly catchment nitrate fate simulations

摘要

The high complexity of nitrate dynamics and corresponding deterministic models make it very appealing to employ easy, fast, and parsimonious modelling alternatives for decision support. This study presents a fuzzy rule based metamodel consisting of eight fuzzy modules, which is able to simulate nitrate fluxes in large watersheds from their diffuse sources via surface runoff, interflow, and base flow to the catchment outlet. The fuzzy rules are trained on a database established with a calibrated SWAT model for an investigation area of 1000 km(2). The metamodel performs well on this training area and on two out of three validation areas in different landscapes, with a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of around 0.5-0.7 for the monthly nitrate calculations. The fuzzy model proves to be fast, requires only few readily available input data, and the rule based model structure facilitates a common-sense interpretation of the model, which deems the presented approach suitable for the development of decision support tools. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.