Systematic assessment of the static stress triggering hypothesis using interearthquake time statistics

摘要

A likely source of earthquake clustering is static stress transfer between individual events. Previous attempts to quantify the role of static stress for earthquake triggering generally considered only the stress changes caused by large events and often discarded data uncertainties. We conducted a robust twofold empirical test of the static stress change hypothesis by accounting for all events of magnitude M2.5 and their location and focal mechanism uncertainties provided by catalogs for Southern California between 1981 and 2010, first after resolving the focal plane ambiguity and second after randomly choosing one of the two nodal planes. For both cases, we find compelling evidence supporting the static triggering with stronger evidence after resolving the focal plane ambiguity above significantly small (about 10Pa) but consistently observed stress thresholds. The evidence for the static triggering hypothesis is robust with respect to the choice of the friction coefficient, Skempton's coefficient, and magnitude threshold. Weak correlations between the Coulomb index (fraction of earthquakes that received positive Coulomb stress change) and the coefficient of friction indicate that the role of normal stress in triggering is rather limited. Last but not the least, we determined that the characteristic time for the loss of the stress change memory of a single event is nearly independent of the amplitude of the Coulomb stress change and varies between similar to 95 and similar to 180days implying that forecasts based on static stress changes will have poor predictive skills beyond times that are larger than a few hundred days on average.