Downdip landward limit of Cascadia great earthquake rupture

摘要

[1] This paper examines the constraints to the downdip landward limit of rupture for the Cascadia great earthquakes off western North America. This limit is a primary control for ground motion hazard at near-coastal cities. The studies also provide information on the physical controls of subduction thrust rupture globally. The constraints are (1) "locked/ transition" zones from geodetic deformation (GPS, repeated leveling, tide gauges); (2) rupture zone from paleoseismic coastal marsh subsidence, "paleogeodesy"; (3) temperature on the thrust for the seismic-aseismic transition; (4) change in thrust seismic reflection character downdip from thin seismic to thick ductile; (5) fore-arc mantle corner aseismic serpentinite and talc overlying the thrust; (6) updip limit of episodic tremor and slip (ETS) slow slip; (7) rupture area associations with shelf-slope basins; (8) depth limit for small events on the thrust; and (9) landward limit of earthquakes on the Nootka transform fault zone. The most reliable constraints for the limit of large rupture displacement, >10 m, are generally just offshore in agreement with thermal control for this hot subduction zone, but well-offshore central Oregon and near the coast of northernWashington. The limit for 1-2m rupture that can still provide strong shaking is less well estimated 25-50 km farther landward. The fore-arc mantle corner and the updip extent of ETS slow slip are significantly landward from the other constraints. Surprisingly, there is a downdip gap between the best other estimates for the great earthquake rupture zone and the ETS slow slip. In this gap, plate convergence may occur as continuous slow creep.