Correction to “Control of fossil-fuel particulate black carbon and organic matter, possibly the most effective method of slowing global warming”

摘要

This document describes two updates and a correction that affect two figures (Figures 1 and 14) in “Control of fossil-fuel particulate black carbon and organic matter, possibly the most effective method of slowing global warming” by Mark Z. Jacobson (Journal of Geophysical Research, 107(D19), 4410, doi:10.1029/2001JD001376, 2002). The modifications have no effect on the numerical simulations in the paper, only on the postsimulation analysis. The changes include the following: (1) The overall lifetime of CO2 is updated to range from 30 to 95 years instead of 50 to 200 years, (2) the assumption that the anthropogenic emission rate of CO2 is in equilibrium with its atmospheric mixing ratio is corrected, and (3) data for high-mileage vehicles available in the U.S. are used to update the range of mileage differences (15–30% better for diesel) in comparison with one difference previously (30% better mileage for diesel). The modifications do not change the main conclusions in J2002, namely, (1) “any emission reduction of fossil-fuel particulate BC plus associated OM may slow global warming more than may any emission reduction of CO2 or CH4 for a specific period,” and (2) diesel cars emitting continuously under the most recent U.S. and E.U. particulate standards (0.08 g/mi; 0.05 g/km) may warm climate per distance driven over the next 100+ years more than equivalent gasoline cars. Toughening vehicle particulate emission standards by a factor of 8 (0.01 g/mi; 0.006 g/km) does not change this conclusion, although it shortens the period over which diesel cars warm to 13–54 years,” except as follows: for conclusion 1, the period in Figure 1 of J2002 during which eliminating all fossil-fuel black carbon plus organic matter (f.f. BC + OM) has an advantage over all anthropogenic CO2 decreases from 25–100 years to about 11–13 years and for conclusion 2 the period in Figure 14 of J2002 during which gasoline vehicles may have an advantage broadens from 13 to 54 years to 10 to >100 years. On the basis of the revised analysis, the ratio of the 100-year climate response per unit mass emission of f.f. BC + OM relative to that of CO2-C is estimated to be about 90–190.