Predicting extreme water surface elevation in tidal river reaches by different joint probability methods.

摘要

Determination of water surface elevation in tidal rivers is a very complex problem. In these rivers, two phenomena are effective (fluvial flows at the upstream of them and tidal height at the downstream of them). Because of independency of these phenomena, combination of their return period needs a suitable theory. Joint probability method is a theory for combination of independent phenomena. This method shows a combined coefficient. The value of this coefficient related to type of joint probability method. In this research, three methods were considered (desk study joint probability method, analytic joint probability method and developed joint probability method by researcher). Three methods were applied in Karun River in Iran. Observed data showed that developed joint probability method by researcher has the best fitting to them.