Model averaging based on leave-subject-out cross-validation

摘要

This paper develops a frequentist model averaging method based on the leave-subject-out cross validation. This method is applicable not only to averaging longitudinal data models, but also to averaging time series models which can have heteroscedastic errors. The resulting model averaging estimators are proved to be asymptotically optimal in the sense of achieving the lowest possible squared errors. Both simulation study and empirical example show the superiority of the proposed estimators over their competitors. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.