Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models

摘要

We examine the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests for equal forecast accuracy and encompassing applied to 1-step ahead forecasts from nested linear models. We first derive the asymptotic distributions of two standard tests and one new test of encompassing and provide tables of asymptotically valid critical values. Monte Carlo methods are then used to evaluate the size and power of tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing. The simulations indicate that post-sample tests can bereasonably well sized. Of the post-sample tests considered, the encompassing test proposed in this paper is the most powerful. We conclude with an empirical application regarding the predictive content of unemployment for inflation.