Macro-econometrics

摘要

Shortly after World War II, many of the leading econometricians collaborated under the aegis of the Cowles Commission and, over the course of a few years, developed a research agenda that structured macroeconometrics for the second half of the 20thcentury. The central vision of this research program was simple: the development of a mathematical model of the macroeconomy with grounding in economic theory, with parameters estimated using sound statistical methods, tested against and thus consistentwith empirical evidence. The resulting macroeconomic model should be useful for testing economic theories, for macroeconomic forecasting, as for advising policymakers. This vision provides a useful backdrop against which to assess the achievements of macroeconometrics over the past half century and the challenges remaining. Where have we succeeded within this research program? How has the original vision been extended and modified? And what challenges remain? I address these questions in the context offour topics within macroeconomics that have seen significant research efforts which produced durable advances. These remarks should be interpreted as affirming the importance of the research area even as they highlight what I consider to be important weaknesses that need to be resolved by further research.