Time and causality: A Monte Carlo assessment of the timing-of-events approach

摘要

We present new Monte Carlo evidence regarding the feasibility of separating causality from selection within non-experimental duration data, by means of the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE). Key findings are: (i) the NPMLE is extremely reliable, and it accurately separates the causal effects of treatment and duration dependence from sorting effects, almost regardless of the true unobserved heterogeneity distribution; (ii) the NPMLE is normally distributed, and standard errors can becomputed directly from the optimally selected model; and (iii) unjustified restrictions on the heterogeneity distribution, e.g., in terms of a pre-specified number of support points, may cause substantial bias.